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A380 At EWR?
b-747Дата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:21 | Сообщение # 51
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not really a mish mash. only 2: its very late and long overdue for a commercial program, and there are political "problems" besides.

I never asserted that the Germany thing was technical......I agree its political. But it certainly is an ironic twist in the saga of the A380, at least to me.


 
teofelsДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:22 | Сообщение # 52
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I am sure if Emirates had a fleet of B748s, that they were upgrading to from the B773 it would still be the same problem. That is, Emirates wanting more Germany market share than Germany is willing to give. At best, your point is moot.

Yes, it is late. It is not the first, and it'll not be the last.
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Der Wolf ändert wohl das Haar, doch bleibt er, wie er war
 
СААДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:24 | Сообщение # 53
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Quote (b-747)

I never asserted that the Germany thing was technical......I agree its political. But it certainly is an ironic twist in the saga of the A380, at least to me.

What routes would they use them for?
Even on high traffic routes is seems airlines would rather have more frequent flights.
In the summer American flies two flights DFW to Gatwick.
The second airplane is a long paid for 767.
Likewise BA does two flights a day SEA-LHR in (again) long paid for 747-400s.
And two flights with different departure tiimes make a lot of sense in the US where customers are flying into the departure points from many distance cities. So as an example, someone leaving from Iowa and having to make two connecting flights to Dallas, a later, second departure makes a lot of sense.

In the off season, an airline would likely be faced with a lot of overcapity with a very expensive new aircraft to pay for.
The same rationale is probably the reason why 747-8 passenger sales are slow.

I'm not anti-A380, but it doesn't take a rocket science to predict there is a smaller market for mega transports than for 737/320s. I'd hope in the future rather than having two programs with (broadly) the same goals, that Boeing and Airbus would collaborate..t just makes sense for a very expensive program with a finite market.


С уважением, А.А.Степанов.
http://avsim.pp.ru/blog/
 
bar_rodoyДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:26 | Сообщение # 54
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Quote (САА)
What routes would they use them for?
Even on high traffic routes is seems airlines would rather have more frequent flights.
In the summer American flies two flights DFW to Gatwick.
The second airplane is a long paid for 767.
Likewise BA does two flights a day SEA-LHR in (again) long paid for 747-400s.
And two flights with different departure tiimes make a lot of sense in the US where customers are flying into the departure points from many distance cities. So as an example, someone leaving from Iowa and having to make two connecting flights to Dallas, a later, second departure makes a lot of sense.

In the off season, an airline would likely be faced with a lot of overcapity with a very expensive new aircraft to pay for.
The same rationale is probably the reason why 747-8 passenger sales are slow.

I'm not anti-A380, but it doesn't take a rocket science to predict there is a smaller market for mega transports than for 737/320s. I'd hope in the future rather than having two programs with (broadly) the same goals, that Boeing and Airbus would collaborate..t just makes sense for a very expensive program with a finite market.

Pray tell, what be that reason?

The A380, 777, A350, A320, 737NG, A330/A340 A350 and all future aircraft to come were or will be designed using CAD software.

Yesterdays aircraft were all the bit as complex as todays.
Yesterdays aircraft were designed by the slide rule and the human brain and pure guesswork (no matter how educated the guess).
Todays electrical circuits are yesterdays control lines, pulleys and tensioners.
Todays electronic "glass" cockpit instruments are yesterdays steam gauges with miles and miles of wiring.

Fact is, the whole business of designing aircraft was every bit as complex then as it is now. Yet the manufacturers managed. The 747 was that complex and huge, it nigh on broke Boeing. It's complexity shows in it's longevity and adaptability.
And don't tell me the 737 family was an easy design either. For something to sell that long in those numbers, it had to be designed well and the complexity in that design shows. They're still tweaking it today.

The A380 was an organisational, too many chiefs and not enough indians, nightmare. The 787 exactly the same. I think it is far too early to judge the A350 and eventual 797.

The A380 may be rolling out the factory doors years after the last 747 will do, but you forget the 747 is 40 years older. You cannot compare them that way.
 
B-737ngДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:26 | Сообщение # 55
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Hey, that MAY be true if the planes were reversed, but it is not the case.

I just find it hugely ironic (and hilarious) that the A380's largest customer is being severely slot restricted by one of the Airbus partial owners (the German Government). Just imagine the sales flyer for future programs: "Buy our airplanes! Just don't fly them to our country! Or only fly them when, where, and how often WE decide." Ha! HaHa! Socialism....ain't it great?
 
B-737ngДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:27 | Сообщение # 56
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Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner.

The worldwide air transport market has been fragmenting for 20 years now. For example, between the U.S. and Europe, the traditional trans-Atlantic gateways of JFK and LHR are now routinely over-flown. There is much more point to point service. This is also happening in the Pacific, and will happen at a faster rate as China continues to grow and the 787 comes into service. Japan will be overflown. Japan will still have O&D, and it will still have a vibrant economy, it just won't as important a hub as it was in the past.

International route fragmentation was facilitated by the 767 and ETOPS. Boeing led the way. Airbus came along only reluctantly, and late at that. Witness the A340. Airbus followed the failure of the A340 by allowing their pride to govern their actions and developed the failed A380. If it was 1970, the A380 might work, but the rate at which markets are fragmenting virtually guarantees limited A380 sales. They might sell 1,000. Might. In the meantime thousands of 787's and A350's will be built. To say nothing of A330's and 777's. Boeing only built the 748 because it was easy. It was easy to develop from the 744, it was easy to ensure a few hundred sales, it was easy to steal a few hundred sales from the A380. Developed at a fraction of the cost of the A380 and practically ensuring market failure (never reaching breakeven) of the A380 was an easy decision for Boeing.

I don't love Boeing. I have no association with them. I think they do a lot of stupid things. But they took a huge gamble on ETOPS when they modified the 767s and when they built the 777 specifially for ETOPS, and they were right, and they followed it up with the 787, which was the right airplane, but they failed to deliver in a timely manner. ALPA was wrong about ETOPS. Airbus was wrong about ETOPS. Lufthansa was wrong about ETOPS. Boeing was right, the market changed forever, and it ain't changing back. Being right should still count for something.

While LHR bumbles about with NIMBY problems and fails to build another runway, and has raised taxes to an exorbitant level to pay for T5 (and further drive away connecting traffic), the Chinese have just announced plans to build an all-new airport for Beijing, with 8 (count 'em, 8) runways, to open by 2017. Thats right 2017, and they haven't even started yet, but it will probably be done.
 
cassini-mДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:27 | Сообщение # 57
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If you honestly think that Germany is a socialist country, then it's going to be really hard to take anything else you say seriously.

Flag-waving, chest-beating and other utter irrelevancies aside; what these assorted numbers and statistics (97.4% of all statistics being made up on the spot, of course) tell us is that the market for large 4-engined airlines is nowhere near as large in the first quarter of this century as it was in the final quarter of the previous century.

All else is just posturing and wishful thinking.
 
ГостьДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:28 | Сообщение # 58
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Well, what happened guys? Just got in from work checked the thread and all hell's broken out.
If we could fast forward 10 years we'd know what will/would happen.
All I know is that Boeing and Airbus will continue to deliver whatever they are making. Lets face it they both have good programs to go at. (Based on good sales).

Getting back on thread, A380 is moving forward, take a look here:

http://plane.spottingworld.com/A380_production_list

Not bad hey.
 
B-737ngДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:28 | Сообщение # 59
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No brickbats or incoming shells from me...
I was sitting through an particularly tedious outdoor assembly yesterday and was somewhat relieved when an A380 directly overflew on approach to Heathrow, showing off its incredible wingspan.
I think we'll see many hundreds of these beautiful aircraft eventually. Think of all the B747-400s nearing retirement which will need replacing. Mind you, a lot depends on how well Boeing does with the B747-8 (which I would also love to see flying over).
As good as the B777 is, it cannot entirely replace the big four-engined aircraft, I don't think.
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AirbusДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:28 | Сообщение # 60
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Quote (B-737ng)
No brickbats or incoming shells from me...
I was sitting through an particularly tedious outdoor assembly yesterday and was somewhat relieved when an A380 directly overflew on approach to Heathrow, showing off its incredible wingspan.
I think we'll see many hundreds of these beautiful aircraft eventually. Think of all the B747-400s nearing retirement which will need replacing. Mind you, a lot depends on how well Boeing does with the B747-8 (which I would also love to see flying over).
As good as the B777 is, it cannot entirely replace the big four-engined aircraft, I don't think.
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Not all 747-400's will be replaced with A380s.
Airlines, where possible, have been downsizing for many years now, replacing 744s with 773s and eventualy A350-1000s and doing quite well. Less seats to fill, more range.


[img]http://www.smithinst.ac.uk/[/img]
 
cassini-mДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:30 | Сообщение # 61
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Quite so.

The long-haul business - including the cargo sector, let us not forget - has evolved considerably over the few decades.

Where they would once have been the norm, the 4-engined heavies are increasingly aiming at a niche market so far as intercontinental long haul is concerned.
 
teofelsДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:30 | Сообщение # 62
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Quote (bar_rodoy)
The A380, 777, A350, A320, 737NG, A330/A340 A350 and all future aircraft to come were or will be designed using CAD software.

The level of integration in modern aircraft is phenomenal, is the reason enough. Anyone involved with modern Airbus, or the B777; every system talks to each other. The amount of software that has to be written, tested, verified and certified eats hugely into time, money and manpower. It is going to get worse with the integration of IFE and cabin systems, it already caused severe headaches for Airbus on the A380.


Der Wolf ändert wohl das Haar, doch bleibt er, wie er war
 
teofelsДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:31 | Сообщение # 63
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Quote (cassini-m)
Quite so.

The long-haul business - including the cargo sector, let us not forget - has evolved considerably over the few decades.

Where they would once have been the norm, the 4-engined heavies are increasingly aiming at a niche market so far as intercontinental long haul is concerned.

Sorry, you misunderstood. The A380 needs a North American order, it may well be that North America doesn't need the A380.


Der Wolf ändert wohl das Haar, doch bleibt er, wie er war
 
B-737ngДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:31 | Сообщение # 64
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Not only does North America not need the A380, the paltry order book seems to indicate the world doesn't need the A380 very much.
 
teofelsДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:31 | Сообщение # 65
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At one time in history, even the 747 only had 200 orders.

Der Wolf ändert wohl das Haar, doch bleibt er, wie er war
 
СААДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:32 | Сообщение # 66
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Quote (teofels)
At one time in history, even the 747 only had 200 orders.

But quickly surpassed that number. Quicker than the A380 has.

However, we should remember that the aviation world was much different when the 747 was introduced.
The 747 was primarily bought for 3 reasons: The prestige and it's range.
Before ETOPS, the 747 was the best way to go long distance.
Nothing in the commercial sector came close to the range of the 747.
It was not until the Oil crisis in the 70s that the 747 started getting filled to capacity.

Todays world is far, far different. Bottom line operating costs have laid waste to any prestige. Cold hard numbers are the order of the day. The A380 may fill the requirements for some airlines, but it is not on its own for range and economy.
Airlines who cannot fill a 747 do not need the A380 for it's range alone. They'll order a 777 or A350.

Therefore, I do not expect the A380 to "sell like the 747 did" as so many seem to do.


С уважением, А.А.Степанов.
http://avsim.pp.ru/blog/
 
teofelsДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:32 | Сообщение # 67
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Sandy, I agree with most of what you say. I would like to put it to you that the 'A' model of any aircraft never seems to sell that well.

In the future the price of oil will rise, airports will become congested with light twins (), and employee costs will still form a large portion of operating expenses.

I don't think the A380 will sell as many as the B747, but I do think it will make Airbus money, in the end.


Der Wolf ändert wohl das Haar, doch bleibt er, wie er war
 
b-747Дата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:33 | Сообщение # 68
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In fairness, the B747-800 is just as unlikely to "sell like the 747 did" and for exactly the same reasons.

 
СААДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:34 | Сообщение # 69
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Quote (teofels)
Sandy, I agree with most of what you say. I would like to put it to you that the 'A' model of any aircraft never seems to sell that well.

In the future the price of oil will rise, airports will become congested with light twins (), and employee costs will still form a large portion of operating expenses.

I don't think the A380 will sell as many as the B747, but I do think it will make Airbus money, in the end.

Indeed, indeed.


С уважением, А.А.Степанов.
http://avsim.pp.ru/blog/
 
teofelsДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:35 | Сообщение # 70
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It would be great to see the B747 still being produced after 50 years. In 2017 it'll be 50 years after the B737s first flight.

Der Wolf ändert wohl das Haar, doch bleibt er, wie er war
 
B-737ngДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:37 | Сообщение # 71
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I have a gut feeling it will be as it is a good design. Just think of the celebration at Seattle and the customers that buy in that year. In fact I think I shall buy 50 candles and stick it on a M&S or Waitrose Coffee icing sponge cake and dish it out with oodles of Haagen Daaz. Anyone in the vicinity is welcome.
 
@737@Дата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:37 | Сообщение # 72
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I can't help thinking that, if the four-engined market was to be as dismal as some seem to think here, Boeing would never have bothered with the B747-8 and instead, would have allowed the type a graceful retirement.
Over the medium to longer term, we are told that passenger numbers will increase significantly but space for airport expansion and air lanes will not be able to keep pace, so surely a 550-seat aircraft would be just what is needed.
 
teofelsДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:38 | Сообщение # 73
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In what world does the German government own a part of Airbus. Maybe in (your) fantasyland but not in the real one.

Der Wolf ändert wohl das Haar, doch bleibt er, wie er war
 
b-747Дата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:38 | Сообщение # 74
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Airbus have delivered 52 of 236 firm orders.

That leaves 184 on the backlog.

The production rate last year was 18, this year will be about 25.

184/25 is over 7 years. Airlines typically don't like waiting that long.


 
ГостьДата: Вторник, 09.08.2011, 12:39 | Сообщение # 75
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I doubt whether Airbus will even break even
 
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